Excellent analysis…I am not a Democrat. I lived in Portland and gave up on the party after the 2020/2021 and the debacle that was Joe Biden. That said I am worried for the party.
They are driving moderates to places like Florida, Texas, and a number of other red states.
This will create three big problems. First it worsen an already bad map, creating perhaps a dozen more red leaning seats for hose republicans. Second, after the shit show that is Donald Trump they may end up facing a more moderate and competent Republican Party.
Third, if the Dems manage to win in 2028 they will also kind of own the train wreck that coming.
I think the Dems really need to moderate just to stay in the race. It doesn’t need to be extreme because they party has moved so far least since Obama in 2008. Just adopt an stance comparable to Obama 2012 and try to focus on rejuvenating the state Dem parties in red states.
The problem is that Dems or dem leaning people who moved to red states will not trust the party if the national brand does not change. The party needs to moderate enough to make those voters (I.e., the ones who moved to get away but are still fundamentally at least slightly left) feel like the won’t get screwed again.
If the current party can’t move enough to the right in the face of Trump, I have doubts about their ability to do this now.
Respectfully, I think your reply actually highlights the Dems problems. My issue with 2020/2021 was not presidential, it was simultaneously being in a building set on fire by “mostly peaceful protestors” while watching Seattle’s mayor joke about armed gunmen taking over part of the city and refusing lawful civil authority access (some would call this an insurrection). Swing voters saw this an rejected it.
Again, no offense intended but it is not propaganda but fact that the Dems have moved way to the left of the last successful Dem president. Blaming others for the Dems unwillingness to address their glaring problems is why we got Trump 2.0.
"Excellent analysis…I am not a Democrat. I lived in Portland and gave up on the party after the 2020/2021 and the debacle that was Joe Biden"
2020 and 2021 had different Presidents, so you might want to look outside the White House for what bothered you about those two years in particular. (Hint: global catastrophe, mass death, restricted movement)
"The party needs to moderate enough to make those voters (I.e., the ones who moved to get away but are still fundamentally at least slightly left) feel like the won’t get screwed again."
They need to moderate enough, and also destroy or disrupt the propaganda organs that will continue to convince people they are extreme no matter how much they moderate.
If moderates truly think progressive politicians are bad for the party, than the onus is on those moderates to figure out how to win back the trust of Democratic voters instead of trying to rub our faces in the dirt and forcing us to vote for them.
Moderates love to talk about Democrats losing the trust of the low-info swing voter in Wisconsin or whatever, but by the same token, because of their undercutting actions against Obama and Biden while those two were in office which has led to a belief a lot of moderate Democratic politicians simply don't have the same values and beliefs we do, and why should I vote for somebody with a different value and belief system?
The left has had 10 years to recognize the medium-term need is for a broad coalition of pro-democracy resistance to Trump/the New Right. For: good government, freedom, transparency. Against: backsliding, radical change.
At best, the left has been inconsistent in understanding this; at worst, the progressives are holding the entire anti-Trump movement hostage over anti-Capitalist policy, Trans maximalism, and aggressive identity politics.
If/when Democrats can settle on a big tent where everyone understands the stakes of the era, things will stabilize. Until then…
This is from a far left Lefty here in the heart of leftyville, otherwise known as Minneapolis.
Case you weren't aware of this week's kerfuffle you might appreciate this. Keep in mind she's from the Peggy flanigan style camp. So extremely biased "reporting" but you might still find it interesting:
Calling it the "Humphrey Project" almost feels like it's goading leftists to consider what happened the last time they abandoned the Democratic Party, and the "liberalism" they so disdained, when Humphrey was the candidate - the nearly-unbroken 20 year stretch of Republican executives it ushered in.
Thanks for the summary of this race! I’ve heard about Flanagan but didn’t know much of Craig. As a former donor/supporter of Klobuchar’s presidential campaign, I truly hope that Craig can pull this one off and carry on Klobuchar’s moderate-liberal mantle
If you're a Democrat (I am not) you'd better pray for Angie Craig. Because your "catastrophe" already happened, to the tune of more than a billion dollars of Somali fraud. If Flanagan wins the primary, the GOP might as well run the clip of her in a hijab on repeat every day from now until November.
Craig has a cash advantage because she has taken corporate PAC money.
Right now I am looking for the candidate who will release the Epstein files, prosecute Elon Musk for stealing all of our information, and tax these obscenely rich motherfuckers who are warping our political reality. Until we do something about the extreme wealth inequality in the us, we can't have free and fair elections. Sadly, the, "far left," is the only group talking about substantial action on this front. Everybody else is taking money from the billionaires.
Apparently you haven't done very much research into Peggy Flanagan. Her whole deal is she does not take any corporate PAC money and she has been campaigning on it. Look at the filings if you don't believe me, and prove me wrong.
I've worked in politics, have been involved in political campaigns forever. They all take PAC money. They may put off putting it on a filing until just before the election, or they may take Labor PACs or PACs from other organizations, but they all take PAC money. Peggy Flanagan too.
The word "corporate" is doing a lot of work in there, especially when "non-corporate," in the context of a PAC, is not synonymous with "grassroots and totally above-board."
"Right now I am looking for the candidate who will release the Epstein files"
Congress already voted to release them. Neither Craig nor Flanagan's contribution will be needed on that end. The problem at this point is executive noncompliance.
And all Democrats want to tax obscenely rich motherfuckers, it's kind of our north star.
If it were true that only the "far left" was talking about these issues that would be a problem, since it's the single most ineffectual political faction in the country.
Well, you may have noticed that the taxes on the rich remain extremely low, through both centrist Democrat and Republican congresses. The far left, however, has not ever been in power. So I'd say that the proof is in the pudding.
The executive is a demented child molester, trying to avoid prison. I do not expect him to comply.
We need a DEM majority - and one who is not afriad to shut shit down. Of the two, Flanagan seems to be that person. She has not taken CORPORATE PAC money.
People really don't get it. "Moving to the center" isn't about triangulation. It's not about chasing some kind of mythical voter that exists in any significant quantity. It's about making "the list of things you have to agree with to want to vote for me" as short as possible.
The point is that the “mythical voter” is just that, a myth. It doesn’t exist, and that is why we should stop trying to chase it.
The “Let’s Go Brandon” voter, however, is very real.
Yes, you probably need to be able to read (and think) beyond a fourth grade level to, I don’t know, understand why vaccines aren’t a hoax, and why you should vaccinate your children.
Let’s Go Brandon is always going to be susceptible to propaganda, and regardless of how much we slim down (dumb down) what we believe in, we are never going to get to “migrants are eating pets.”
If it takes a full paragraph to explain why we shouldn’t be putting children in cages, then so be it, and if Let’s Go Brandon is never going to vote for us, then so be it too.
Smart take, and, in my opinion, a trend that the Democrats have to reverse or they will waste the opportunity presented by Trump “fatigue.” Whether they can do it is always the $1million question…
"I’ll spare you what each candidate says they are running for, because we all know its a bunch of hokum anyway." Is then followed by a vapid characterization of the two candidates that would fit best in a Fox news segment.
If you want to make an argument for why one is better or worse you have to turn that argument on something substantive not a hand waiving otherwise it is neither analysis nor informative.
You might mention that Flanagan and Craig have very different views on Israel/Palestine. There are substantive differences.
I also have to tell you that every solicitation Craig has sent to me out of state mentions Republican threats to her (two-mom) family, which sounds like identity politics to me.
Contribute nothing to other state races. Tend your own garden. It's not a money problem, it's a message problem rapidly followed by a governing problem. Do you think there won't be a slew of GOP ads featuring Mamdani, Spanberger and others who slide hard left?
Just to be clear, this is probably the most neutral, non-offensive sincere inquiry I have ever posted on Substack so I am really caught off guard by the responses. This is an article about Democrats' problems and why we keep losing. I am a Democrat, interested in not losing. I think minding my own fucking business may not be the best thing to do, at least according to the author of this article. I'm curious-what triggered you?
Update. I did not mind my own fucking business-or maybe I did.
I made a donation to Angie Craig. In my own state, I am similarly donating to the person challenging the incumbent in the primary (who is also a far-lefty poser), as it is all but guaranteed that whoever the Democrat is will win the senate election. Once the primaries are over, I will not donate to the candidate in my state (even if it is my person) or to the MN person (even if it is Craig) but will save my $$ for some other state races where the Democrat is less of a shoe-in but still has a shot.
I think that is a good strategy, and quite frankly, my own fucking business.
It is fair to say I am completely alienated.
Lots of calls to accept the socialists. Fuck them.
Lol.
Excellent analysis…I am not a Democrat. I lived in Portland and gave up on the party after the 2020/2021 and the debacle that was Joe Biden. That said I am worried for the party.
They are driving moderates to places like Florida, Texas, and a number of other red states.
This will create three big problems. First it worsen an already bad map, creating perhaps a dozen more red leaning seats for hose republicans. Second, after the shit show that is Donald Trump they may end up facing a more moderate and competent Republican Party.
Third, if the Dems manage to win in 2028 they will also kind of own the train wreck that coming.
I think the Dems really need to moderate just to stay in the race. It doesn’t need to be extreme because they party has moved so far least since Obama in 2008. Just adopt an stance comparable to Obama 2012 and try to focus on rejuvenating the state Dem parties in red states.
The problem is that Dems or dem leaning people who moved to red states will not trust the party if the national brand does not change. The party needs to moderate enough to make those voters (I.e., the ones who moved to get away but are still fundamentally at least slightly left) feel like the won’t get screwed again.
If the current party can’t move enough to the right in the face of Trump, I have doubts about their ability to do this now.
Respectfully, I think your reply actually highlights the Dems problems. My issue with 2020/2021 was not presidential, it was simultaneously being in a building set on fire by “mostly peaceful protestors” while watching Seattle’s mayor joke about armed gunmen taking over part of the city and refusing lawful civil authority access (some would call this an insurrection). Swing voters saw this an rejected it.
Again, no offense intended but it is not propaganda but fact that the Dems have moved way to the left of the last successful Dem president. Blaming others for the Dems unwillingness to address their glaring problems is why we got Trump 2.0.
Last successful democrat President John Kennedy? Look where that got him
"Excellent analysis…I am not a Democrat. I lived in Portland and gave up on the party after the 2020/2021 and the debacle that was Joe Biden"
2020 and 2021 had different Presidents, so you might want to look outside the White House for what bothered you about those two years in particular. (Hint: global catastrophe, mass death, restricted movement)
"The party needs to moderate enough to make those voters (I.e., the ones who moved to get away but are still fundamentally at least slightly left) feel like the won’t get screwed again."
They need to moderate enough, and also destroy or disrupt the propaganda organs that will continue to convince people they are extreme no matter how much they moderate.
You are literally the problem.
Non sequitur. I think the model is misfiring.
Democrats just need to not be crazy. So far, they're struggling to achieve that.
If moderates truly think progressive politicians are bad for the party, than the onus is on those moderates to figure out how to win back the trust of Democratic voters instead of trying to rub our faces in the dirt and forcing us to vote for them.
Moderates love to talk about Democrats losing the trust of the low-info swing voter in Wisconsin or whatever, but by the same token, because of their undercutting actions against Obama and Biden while those two were in office which has led to a belief a lot of moderate Democratic politicians simply don't have the same values and beliefs we do, and why should I vote for somebody with a different value and belief system?
The left has had 10 years to recognize the medium-term need is for a broad coalition of pro-democracy resistance to Trump/the New Right. For: good government, freedom, transparency. Against: backsliding, radical change.
At best, the left has been inconsistent in understanding this; at worst, the progressives are holding the entire anti-Trump movement hostage over anti-Capitalist policy, Trans maximalism, and aggressive identity politics.
If/when Democrats can settle on a big tent where everyone understands the stakes of the era, things will stabilize. Until then…
This is from a far left Lefty here in the heart of leftyville, otherwise known as Minneapolis.
Case you weren't aware of this week's kerfuffle you might appreciate this. Keep in mind she's from the Peggy flanigan style camp. So extremely biased "reporting" but you might still find it interesting:
https://taylordahlin.com/f/dfl-chair-richard-carlbom-shuts-down-humphrey-project-division
Calling it the "Humphrey Project" almost feels like it's goading leftists to consider what happened the last time they abandoned the Democratic Party, and the "liberalism" they so disdained, when Humphrey was the candidate - the nearly-unbroken 20 year stretch of Republican executives it ushered in.
Thanks for the summary of this race! I’ve heard about Flanagan but didn’t know much of Craig. As a former donor/supporter of Klobuchar’s presidential campaign, I truly hope that Craig can pull this one off and carry on Klobuchar’s moderate-liberal mantle
If you're a Democrat (I am not) you'd better pray for Angie Craig. Because your "catastrophe" already happened, to the tune of more than a billion dollars of Somali fraud. If Flanagan wins the primary, the GOP might as well run the clip of her in a hijab on repeat every day from now until November.
Craig has a cash advantage because she has taken corporate PAC money.
Right now I am looking for the candidate who will release the Epstein files, prosecute Elon Musk for stealing all of our information, and tax these obscenely rich motherfuckers who are warping our political reality. Until we do something about the extreme wealth inequality in the us, we can't have free and fair elections. Sadly, the, "far left," is the only group talking about substantial action on this front. Everybody else is taking money from the billionaires.
All candidates take PAC money. It's naive to assume otherwise.
Apparently you haven't done very much research into Peggy Flanagan. Her whole deal is she does not take any corporate PAC money and she has been campaigning on it. Look at the filings if you don't believe me, and prove me wrong.
I've worked in politics, have been involved in political campaigns forever. They all take PAC money. They may put off putting it on a filing until just before the election, or they may take Labor PACs or PACs from other organizations, but they all take PAC money. Peggy Flanagan too.
I don't think Billy Nord is taking any money.
I also don't think many people even realize he's running.
Probably some causation in that correlation.
"does not take any corporate PAC money"
The word "corporate" is doing a lot of work in there, especially when "non-corporate," in the context of a PAC, is not synonymous with "grassroots and totally above-board."
Peggy Flanagan doesn’t take PAC money.
Peggy Flanagan upholds Democrats values.
Peggy Flanagan is insane. Certifiably insane.
Have a nice day!
The far left is overwhelmingly funded by a couple of billionaires.
Otherwise they’d still be the fringe communists and ELF/ALF granola environmentalists they were from the 60s through early 2000s.
"Right now I am looking for the candidate who will release the Epstein files"
Congress already voted to release them. Neither Craig nor Flanagan's contribution will be needed on that end. The problem at this point is executive noncompliance.
And all Democrats want to tax obscenely rich motherfuckers, it's kind of our north star.
If it were true that only the "far left" was talking about these issues that would be a problem, since it's the single most ineffectual political faction in the country.
Well, you may have noticed that the taxes on the rich remain extremely low, through both centrist Democrat and Republican congresses. The far left, however, has not ever been in power. So I'd say that the proof is in the pudding.
The executive is a demented child molester, trying to avoid prison. I do not expect him to comply.
We need a DEM majority - and one who is not afriad to shut shit down. Of the two, Flanagan seems to be that person. She has not taken CORPORATE PAC money.
She’s taken a fuckload of money from government-funded NGO employees.
Centrists problems in a nutshell:
https://douglascarlton.substack.com/p/the-myth-of-the-center?r=1tl5sg&utm_medium=ios
People really don't get it. "Moving to the center" isn't about triangulation. It's not about chasing some kind of mythical voter that exists in any significant quantity. It's about making "the list of things you have to agree with to want to vote for me" as short as possible.
The point is that the “mythical voter” is just that, a myth. It doesn’t exist, and that is why we should stop trying to chase it.
The “Let’s Go Brandon” voter, however, is very real.
Yes, you probably need to be able to read (and think) beyond a fourth grade level to, I don’t know, understand why vaccines aren’t a hoax, and why you should vaccinate your children.
Let’s Go Brandon is always going to be susceptible to propaganda, and regardless of how much we slim down (dumb down) what we believe in, we are never going to get to “migrants are eating pets.”
If it takes a full paragraph to explain why we shouldn’t be putting children in cages, then so be it, and if Let’s Go Brandon is never going to vote for us, then so be it too.
…I explicitly said it’s not about chasing that kind of voter.
Craig is also a corporate stooge and I'm tired of here ilk
Smart take, and, in my opinion, a trend that the Democrats have to reverse or they will waste the opportunity presented by Trump “fatigue.” Whether they can do it is always the $1million question…
"I’ll spare you what each candidate says they are running for, because we all know its a bunch of hokum anyway." Is then followed by a vapid characterization of the two candidates that would fit best in a Fox news segment.
If you want to make an argument for why one is better or worse you have to turn that argument on something substantive not a hand waiving otherwise it is neither analysis nor informative.
Suggestion: The Democratic Farmer-Labor Party absorbs the Democratic Party and goes national. It's a better brand.
Yeah, no.
It was not a serious suggestion, but thank you for the feedback.
You might mention that Flanagan and Craig have very different views on Israel/Palestine. There are substantive differences.
I also have to tell you that every solicitation Craig has sent to me out of state mentions Republican threats to her (two-mom) family, which sounds like identity politics to me.
so how do I, an out of state Dem, help? Should I drop a few hundred to Craig?
Contribute nothing to other state races. Tend your own garden. It's not a money problem, it's a message problem rapidly followed by a governing problem. Do you think there won't be a slew of GOP ads featuring Mamdani, Spanberger and others who slide hard left?
How about mind your own fucking business?
Just to be clear, this is probably the most neutral, non-offensive sincere inquiry I have ever posted on Substack so I am really caught off guard by the responses. This is an article about Democrats' problems and why we keep losing. I am a Democrat, interested in not losing. I think minding my own fucking business may not be the best thing to do, at least according to the author of this article. I'm curious-what triggered you?
Update. I did not mind my own fucking business-or maybe I did.
I made a donation to Angie Craig. In my own state, I am similarly donating to the person challenging the incumbent in the primary (who is also a far-lefty poser), as it is all but guaranteed that whoever the Democrat is will win the senate election. Once the primaries are over, I will not donate to the candidate in my state (even if it is my person) or to the MN person (even if it is Craig) but will save my $$ for some other state races where the Democrat is less of a shoe-in but still has a shot.
I think that is a good strategy, and quite frankly, my own fucking business.